Defining Complexity

Although the concept of complexity is intuitively understood by most people, it is much more difficult to define precisely in a way that covers its usage. Part of the problem is that it is a 'system-level’ concept, which does not fit well with the persistent 'reductionism’ orientation to understanding the world.

Situation Complexity

Situation complexity is different from system complexity but will generally include selected aspects of each of the systems the decision maker must contend with. The notion includes:

• The number of variables that must be considered in coming to any strategic resolutions [tactical or strategic complexity].
  


• The variety of decisions that must be made within any given length of time.
  


• The level of certainty in the environment as related to the rate of change of information.
  


• The certainty of decision outcomes, which influences the variety of scenarios that need to be considered in arriving at a strategy.

System Complexity

Essentially, system complexity may be described by the number and variety of its inter-related parts, the variety of processes and the number of steps in each process that make up the working entity.

Benefits of System Complexity

All we have to do to appreciate the value of complexity is to observe ourselves and the natural world, and wonder with awe at its intricacy, beauty and versatility. Beyond the natural world, many of our own complex human inventions such as the aircraft, the motorcar and the computer have vastly extended our own possibilities. It is self-evident that complexity can achieve more than the most basic simplicity. This is largely due to the fact that complexity can generate greater variety, and the interaction or cooperation of different entities has a power beyond that of the separate components acting alone.

Drawbacks of System Complexity

Along with complexity, comes

• Increased vulnerability both of the system itself, and as a consequence, anything that depends on it.
  


• Added burdens and more stringent requirements. For any complex system to survive and continue functioning, appropriate internal and external conditions must be maintained.
  


• Increased difficulty in diagnosing problems.

The Burden of Complexity

It is important to distinguish between the complexity of a system and the burden that complexity imposes. This burden depends on

• The degree of automation and reliability.
  


• The variety of information coming from within the system that may affect any decision.
  


• The variety of decisions that have to be made in operating the system.
  


• The number of decisions that have to be made simultaneously when operating the system.

Complex natural systems are usually relatively robust and tend to have a number of features: They are redundant (either over-engineered or their sub-systems are duplicated several times), self repairing and automated to a large degree. Human designed systems often lack one or more of these features, increasing their inherent unreliability. The most severe problems, however, occur at the interface between our complex man-made systems and the human beings who use them, control them or must work within them.

Consequences of Increased Complexity at the Human Interface

• Heavier learning load.
  


• Heavier memory load.
  


• Information overload resulting in confusion.
  


• Pressure, stress, fatigue and burnout.
  


• Increased incentive to cut corners in the pursuit of efficiency resulting in errors, mistakes and oversights.
  


• Increased probability of system breakdown.
  


• Increased tendency to opt out of using the system wherever possible.

Most of these problems are exacerbated with an increased rate of change in the system. While most natural systems may be very complex, they tend to be stable and evolve very slowly. Many man-made systems, particularly rules, regulations and procedures are changed very frequently and often without adequate consultation with users and those who must implement them.

Managing Complexity

Complex systems can be made more manageable by

• Clearly identifying the fixed and the variable aspects of the system.
  


• Clarifying the natural and logical relationships.
  


• Increased frequency of use.
  


• Available support.
  


• Having written instructions readily at hand.
  


• Increasing the inherent reliability, and thereby reducing the monitoring requirements as well as the broader cost of breakdown.

Some General Observations

• There is an inverse relationship between system complexity and reliability. The greater the complexity that must be manually controlled by any one person, the greater the likelihood of errors.
  


• Severe limits exist to the manageable level of complexity, and this level depends on the operator / decision-maker’s
  
  1. Natural ability
     
  
  
  2. State of alertness (intoxication, fatigue)
     
  
  
  3. Training received, understanding of decision outcomes
     
  
  
  4. Ability to prioritise
     
  
  
  5. Interest and sense of responsibility
     
  
  
  6. Ability to concentrate (preoccupation, distraction, boredom)
     
  
  
  7. Interval between involvements and the ‘forgetting factor’
     


• If the allocation of management resources is based on optimistic assumptions then the system will fail in realistic scenarios.

Conclusion

Stable, learnable, reliable, versatile complex material systems offer great benefits to the individual and society. However, they can become a severe burden to individuals who have to maintain, operate and interact with them if principles such as robustness, interface simplicity and efficient maintenance are compromised in the design process.

On the other hand, human systems governed by very complex continuously changing procedures present a very challenging management problem that arises largely because the designers and controllers of these systems are rarely their operators or clients. They have the luxury of issuing directives and shifting the burdens down the line. For complex human systems to work optimally, it is essential that those in control work with those who must operate and interact with the system. Because no human system is perfect, there is an ever-present tendency to patch up problems with added complications as the alternative is usually a complete and costly redesign of the entire system. To counter the relentless trend towards increasing complexity, it is highly desirable to grasp every opportunity to simplify wherever possible.

"Viewpoints"
©Carl Jacob

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